$USDJPY Grinds Higher: Is this move for real?

The $USDJPY has officially wore traders out for the past few months as the breaks were sold into, each and every time. The technical picture has looked good for the bulls for a long time now but every attempt to break and sustain momentum was foiled.

Lets get the picture again. My thoughts and work on this pair seem to be on the side of a sustained move above 103. Then it should re-test the high 104 ranges only to break the bears backs towards 107.

The chart below shows a long wedged – coiled spring that has seen shallow pullback in the most extreme cases of the USD sell off. The base is rising , the moving averages are rising and the RSI is on a move above the peak RSI from the last attempt at the 100 mark. This should get the attention of some real players on the technical side. That wont be enough to sustain it. The pair needs a good leg up from the Yen smashing that I think is about to happen in the next few weeks. So I expect the dollar to stay firm and the yen to get crushed to peg new lows in the next 6-10 weeks. In the mean time, I trade this long side,core position and leg out at key levels and leg in at key dip support spots.

Note: The Bollinger Bands are snapping higher as price breaks above the top BB.


Nick Pirraglia


About Nickolas Pirraglia

Nick Pirraglia started his career in trading in 1991 after returning to the US as an Army Officer deployed in Iraq. He began as a bond broker and worked his way into trading. Expert mentoring, hard work and a disciplined approach to the markets has allowed Nick the ability to maintain a very successful career in Capital Markets and Trading for over 20 years as a professional OTC Market Maker and independent trader. Nick has also managed the trading desks for a two Dallas based capital management companies and traded equities for a Dallas based hedge fund. Nick has trained and mentored thousands of customers in the rigors of trading, technical analysis and risk controls. Recently, Nick had broadened his market experience through the design and product management of two automated trading platforms. He has the pleasure of working with some of the brightest minds in the trading community and has collaborated with experts in data, design, engineering and trading psychology. An avid long distance runner, Nick completed several marathon events, qualified for the Boston marathon, completed several long distance Triathlons to include finishing a full Ironman triathlon.
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