By: Blake Morrow
I normally don’t blog on stocks, but because of our free, live daily webinars I am subject to look at different equities every day. If course, in recent years AAPL is and continues to be on everyone’s radar, but in recent weeks I have been asked (what seems to be daily) what level will AAPL bounce?
Many of you that are daily listeners of the Wizetrade daily webinars have seen this chart on AAPL, and frankly over the last couple months I have talked extensively about the 470 level in AAPL as a good “bounce area.” There are some major Fibonacci clusters there and a major multi year trend line at that same area. See below:
Now that we are closing in on that support (as we look at any instrument approaching key levels of support or resistance) I have to step back and ask myself “is this still a valid area of support to be a buyer?”
Below, I have matched up the SPX and BAC (another stock in the limelight the last couple months) to AAPL. And what you will noticed (highlighted in blue arrows) that since the beginning of last quarter that the SPX is basically flat to slightly higher, BAC is up about 30% and AAPL is down over 15%.
So, I guess I have to pose this question: If you are an asset/fund manager, and you are long BAC, AAPL and a ton of other equities….from a risk management standpoint would you be apt to sell BAC or AAPL based on last quarter’s performance if you thought the market was “toppy” here?
I understand this is a loaded question, and there is much more to consider than just price action alone…but will you let your winners run and cut your losses short? I am guessing despite the story of the company, if you are a risk manager you are going to choose risk management over anything.
I don’t know about you, but if I was long AAPL, but I would be a little concerned if the broader market gets a slight 2-5% pullback from current levels. The 470 level in AAPL may stall prices for a day or two, but lower levels could be in store for the stock.
I totally get the fundamental argument for AAPL. Hell, I have and love all my AAPL products. Butprice action here is telling a story, are you listening?
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